2008-11-22

Getting addicted to Forex Trading

My wife and I went to a parent workshop this morning about internet security at home for concerned parents. The presenter mentioned that online gaming is very popular among the kids and it is very easy for them to be addicted. I was thinking whether it is just the problem for the kids because I have a similar challenge too.

Over the last four weeks, I only placed 3 options trades, all of which were simple quickie on directional bets. For the rest of the time, I focused 100% on forex trades. Yeah, I had two business trips in the month of November and honestly did not really trade. However, the fact that I am now back to the normal schedule allows me to focus again on forex trading.

As I explained to some of my readers, forex trading is tough if one hasn't got the proper education. In addition, under the influence of Boris and Kathy from GFT Forex, I honestly do not trade forex by looking at the technicals alone. I read into a lot of fundamentals and use fundamentals to confirm my directional bias, and use technicals (if I have to) to confirm my bias. So, in this sense, I have fulfilled with Boris mentioned on the first M and the second M.

Imagine in a down day where you see a bullish signal on the carry trade pairs, are you seriously going to long? Well, a pure technical trader may go for this trade and probably it will be either a small winner or luckily best, no loss. However, by understanding the fundamentals, one will more likely than not filter out this long signal and hence, places no trade.

My forex trading hours are primarily in the afternoon, Singapore time. To me, this is the best time to trade because there is no US news that could swing the market easily. In addition, Europe markets have the tendency to follow the US market of the previous days. It's therefore easier to gauge the direction.

Having said that, I know and am aware that there are students who still prefer to trade during US cash market hours. It's fine because it boils down to one's trading preference - in this case, the operating hours. Now that I have traded forex for a while, I must say that I have an upper hand on the news around Asia and Europe, and even Canada, Kiwi and Aussie. There are many opportunities a day so a forex trader should not worry about having nothing to trade. Of course, we filter the better ones in order to ensure a higher win/loss ratio.

I have many trading systems in forex - which I acquired from many mentors and gurus. However, I screened out the best of five which have been working consistently:

Asia High Low System - AHLS
This is a system that requires one to place a trade at 3pm Singapore time on EUR/USD. The idea is to look for breakout of the range, and aim at a quick bite of the breakout and pocket the profits. This system has a track record of about 60% correct over the last few years. A few of us are working on a semi-automatic system and probably will launch in the near future.

London Momentum
This is a system that requires one to place a trade at 3pm Singapore time on GBP/JPY, at which time the London market is open. There is a set of formula to use to calculate the EP, SL and PT and is largely based on Jimmy Young's original version with mutiple lots to go in and scale out. The system however suffers an inconsistency at the beginning of this year and thus, I have researched and introduced a filter that provides a better result. Yesterday, I have further refined the system in such a way that I chalked up 185 pips per 3 lots in a mere two hours. So, London Momentum (Beta 2) will be what I am concentrating on for the next month to see if it can give me a better result. There isn't a trade everyday but for the time I traded so far in November, I recalled there was only a losing trade.

5 min 60 SMA
For Jimmy Young's trading tactics coaching class students, and also the TradeCast Publication subscriber, you know this is the main daily trading system Jimmy and his students use. The challenging part of this system is the execution, and I am still working on how to get a better execution. In addition, I have introduced a new set of stop loss rule which largely follows Kathy's multiple lot scaling out method. So, as Boris said, forex traders are risk managers. I would therefore be more than happy to lock in the profits and make the trade risk free first before looking for the final lot to make a home run.

1 min 60 SMA
This is the newly inented trading system introduced by Jimmy not long ago. It's purely based on the news each day, and can be referred to in the NewsTrader Publication. I have tested this system since last week, and it's 50/50 so far. Let me test it further before I give you my insights.

FAST2
When USD/JPY is trading in a tight range, FX104 did not really work. So, as an alternative, let's go back to the first forex trading system introduced by FX1 Academy. Using Kathy's BB filters and my own parameters, I have managed to screen out many bad qualty set-up. I am glad to say that I have not made a single loss this week on FAST2 based on my parameters. So, who said FX1 Academy's $4,500 course not working? I bet to differ.

For further information about Jimmy Young's trading course, please go to http://www.fxte.com for further details. I know the full-package costs US$7,999 (consisting of the basic course, intermediate online course, trading tactics coaching class, and the advanced online seminar) and it is quite expensive in view of the current economic climate. And at the same time, it is expensive because it gives you the entire trading package which enables you to start, rather than putting one in a half-past-six position. Jimmy shares with his students the game plan each day and this is the cream of the crop. He also does post-mortem everyday to explain what works and what does not work. I have certainly benefited so much from Jimmy's insight.

10 comments:

KT17 said...

I remain a technical trader. Do not forex obey normal chart patterns and candlesticks. Mmmm...

Greeksman said...

Yes, you can choose to be a technical trader. However, tell me if you get a bullish signal on a carry trade pair when the Dows is dropping like shit ... are you seriously taking the long signal and buy EUR/JPY or GBP/JPY?

admin said...

hi Greeksman, i wonder, what are your criteria such that you will know that a system is not working and it is time to enhance/abort?

Greeksman said...

Well, it's a good question. If the market condition changes, it's time I know something is not working well. Also, when a trading system is generating losses consecutively, something is wrong. Most of my trading systems have about 60% to 80% accuracy. So, when a system falls below 50% mark for a short period of time, it is an alarm bell.

KT17 said...

In my trading, I have met and read many different traders with different types of trading methodology. Some say Day Trading is dangerous. Some say Swing Trading is more dangerous. Some say Fundamentals are important to trading. Some say fundamentals are not important to trading. In the end, all of them are right. They are all trading their beliefs. The technical trader reacts to the market. A fundamental news may affect the market move. But I will follow it. Because my belief is too much analysis will affect my trading. But you may think otherwise.

Greeksman said...

Like I said, it's your choice. Your original point was "don't forex obey normal chart patterns and candlesticks". And I just replied accordingly that it is not all the time because of other possible reasons.

Like I also said, it's your choice to be a pure technical trader. And I also agreed that at the end of the day, it is your own belief. What works for you does not necessarily work for others.

I remain adamant that I don't follow 100% technical because I found that fundamental and technical, if combined together, works for me extremely well.

And then, at the same time, your last sentence of the your post does suggest that you are also looking at fundamental news. So, you are not a pure technical trader, are you?

It's ok. You need not explain or justify. I just relay what you said in your first post and your last post and noted some inconsistency. It's ok if you know what you are doing.

admin said...

thanks for your reply, Greeksman :) after you found out what's not working. what makes you think of combining bollinger bands with fx1's original strategy? did you do some sort of backtesting?

Greeksman said...

In my trading, I like to mix different rules developed by different people, and most of the time, if not all, some amazing results will come out. FAST2 with Kathy's BB Bands is an example. To add more edged, I am now looking at adding one more filter which originates from Clarence Chee's system.

FAST2 has a risk/reward ratio of 2:1. So, if I get 80% accuracy, 4 out of 10 trades will be my money. If I can get 90% accuracy, 7 out of 10 trades will be my money. So, I have to work hard to increase the win/loss ratio.

Unknown said...

Can you direct me to a link eloborating more on this Asian High Low breakout system. Would like to look into it. Thks

Greeksman said...

This is my own proprietary system, which is not made public.