Forex Profit Alerts: December 3, 2009

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100 More Correlation Copies Are Being Leaked, But They Won't Last...*

Well I sure didn't expect this!

But yesterday Jason Fielder himself contacted me and let me know the demand was SO high for Correlation AFTER it closed, they were "strong armed" into hiring 2 additional staff members to keep up with the high level of support they are committed to providing.

Because of the new staff that were hired, and the FAR higher than expected demand, Jason just told me he is releasing 75 more copies of Correlation.

Link

(They are now able to support more traders which was the limitation to releasing more copies the week before last.)

BUT...

And this is a big but...

The OTHER reason they are releasing more copies is because of the crazy demand that has not subsided since they closed two Friday's ago.

How do they judge this demand?

Simple, they have a "Waiting List" on the original order page, and you won't believe how many traders have already signed up...

Over 742!

Remember only 75 are available for the 700+ traders that are on the wait list...and they won't last long!

Link

And this time, the doors won't re-open.

PS: Do the math-- there are 742 people on the waiting list. And there are only 75 copies being made available.

There is no risk and, and they even brought back those amazing bonuses as well!

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Problem is, you can get sucked in so fast you could lose your shirt..

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Huge spikes, massive market swings and plunges. Almost on a daily basis. This nerve racking market gets everybody excited, but scares the pants off the Average Joe trader..

But Multinational Corporations, International Banks, World Governments and Big Players with deep pockets shouldn’t be the only guys cashing in on Forex..

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Shocking final Webinar reveals correlation's Performance

With less than 100 copies left and time running out on the option to become a Correlation Code Owner, Jason thought he'd hold one final webinar this Thursday to REALLY show you what you will be test driving.

The feedback from the brand new owners has been some of the best he's ever seen for ANY trading system he's ever developed (it's really quite astounding and he will be sharing some of it with you in the webinar.)

Link

So:

If you aren't averaging 455 pips / month in under 15 minutes per day (and that's NOT EVEN his scalping trades!)...

If you are not pulling the trigger on ALL of your trades with "absolute" confidence...

If you are not taking your trades with 'laser like" accuracy...

You need to drop by for your final chance to see the Correlation Code in action, before they SLAM their doors shut for good.

Oh, and one more thing, this webinar will be different than the last, because he will be focusing more on the actual performance of the system.

He'll be showing you his "1-2 Stack" system which explains exactly how he "stacks" different trades on top of each other to "Supercharge" his performance (remember some of his trades are over 90% accurate).

Link


PS: Jason has just recorded a new video where he shows you some recent performance with his "Follow The Leader" trade that just might make you a "tad" jealous...

As soon as you register for the webinar you will be redirected to the video, so make sure to enter your email, even if you can't make it, at least that way you'll get to see his latest correlation trades.

First Day after Studying Correlation Code

When Correlation Code was launched yesterday, I did not hesitate and quickly got a copy because I am impressed with Jason Fielder's stuff since the day when I joined Triad Formula.

First, I made sure that my login details are correct, followed by downloading the 11 new FXI MT4 indicators on the platform. After that, I went through the training modules and decided for myself which are the primary strategies I have to priortise my time to specialize. There are all together 8 strategies in Correlation Code, and I kind of made up my mind what two or three will form my core cup of tea.

Some people on my Facebook wondered whether it is worth purchasing Correlation Code. My immediate response is it is a question to be decided by ourselves. There will be folks who are skeptical, and would believe that there are always freebies out there for grabs. Hence, during the pre-launch seminar, I saw a few comments to the effect that it is not worth US$1,997 at all. Again, there is perfectly fine to deem US$1,997 as expensive, and it is the person who sees it expensive feels that it is expensive. As far as I am concerned, investing in myself is a core theme I am carrying out my trading business for many years. Hence, investing US$1,997 is not an issue for me - as I find it cheap actually to learn something from someone on whom I trusted as I tested and am satisfied with the previous product.

Anyway, why do I care for other people? I care for myself and as I have already invested this sum, it means that I am now allowing myself to drill into further underlying of how correlation can enable us to milk the market in a different dimension. In this journey, there will be people who bought the package, and "try try", and in the end, finds it not suitable. Well, at least they have given themselves a chance to experience. For folks who do not take the first step to understand whether the product is suitable (and this consists of majority of the people in the world), it means that they will continue their journey of looking for the Holy Grail that is free of charge. It also means that they may stay where they are and ponder and ponder whether they are on the right track.

Well, it is going to be a busy weekend for me as I am going to roll up my sleeves on Day 2 of my Correlation Code journey.

Over 44,000 Traders Can't Be Wrong! "The Code'' Just went live!

I'm almost embarrassed to say it, but Jason has already sold over HALF of the Correlation Code copies available...

And the doors haven't even opened yet!

An "Absolutely Astounding" number of nearly 10,000 wildly excited traders attended yesterdays two live webinars, and snatched 53% of the limited number of correlation copies faster than you can say...

"Target Hit"!

(Jason opened his doors for just 60 minutes after each webinar, then they SLAMMED them shut till right NOW!)

Correlation Is Now Live!

Link

Correlation Will Sell Out!

The Special Bonuses May Already Be Gone...So Hurry up and grab them while you still can!

If you were you there then you have probably already snatched up your copy of The Correlation Code like so many others because of the raw power of trading the "Cracks in the Correlation".

Now for the bad news...

Jason is only releasing 947 copies of The Correlation Code!

That means Less than 2.3% of the traders who loved Jason's reports will even have the opportunity to become a Correlation owner.

Link

So if you missed the webinar now is your chance to grab your copy...

But you really do need to hurry.

PS- The best part of this system is that this is all without any risk, because of their iron-clad 45 day guarantee.

They are that confident that once you start trading "The Code", you will never go back.

Correlation Secrets!

Over 42,000 downloads of The Correlation Secret & The Correlation Cheat Sheets...

Tens of thousands of traders POUNDING Jason's blog every day to watch the videos and learn more...

2146 plus comments of INTENSELY excited traders anticipating "The Big Reveal" on today's live webinars!

It all begins in just a few hours at 1:00 PM EST, when Jason Fielder and Anthony Trister will be getting into the nitty gritty of The Correlation Code!

Link

They'll be showing you more trades and more exciting charts...

You'll also discover when it will become available, how many traders the'll be accepting (it is a very limited number) and they will even reveal some absolutely astounding bonuses as
well.

You don't want to miss this.

Go register now, and if you already have, please do NOT forget to show up!

(You'll get a reminder with your login link 60 minutes before they begin, so check your spam folder if you don't see it)

See you on the webinar!

One Last Correlation Video Before the Live Webinar

If you had the choice, would you rather rely on the sun rising every day, or the weather forecast?

I'm going to guess, it would be the sunrise.

When you're trading with Fundamental Law on your side as correlation traders do, you're only taking the "sunrise trades".

Let me explain...

Whenever correlated pairs "crack" or become temporarily uncorrelated, they will ALWAYS come back together, just as sure as the sun rises every day.

So again today, Jason Fielder saw a crack between 2 pairs, and grabbed a quick and easy 15 pip scalp. (he could have held on for a total of 52 pips, had he decided to stay in).

Link

Go see how he did it yet again, using the correlation code, and...

If you haven't yet registered for the webinar, there is less than 24 hours till it will be too late!!

Go get your seat NOW!

Link

Let's Rule The Markets Together!

The Correlation Code Webinar is SOLD OUT!

You haven't registered yet?

Well the subject of this email is exactly what you'll be seeing if you don't go ahead and register yourself right away.

Link

You see Jason has a maximum of 6000 spots, and they already have FAR more than that registered (actually over 8000 so far and climbing).

If you understand the difference between taking trades based on back tested, curve fitted results like most systems, and "Fundamental Law", like correlation, you won't want to miss out...

And they're just about full.

(Fundamental Law is based on the concept that the sun rises every day, it simply HAS to happen, and is the same principal correlation is based on)

Register before they're full, so Jason and Anthony can show you how we can...

Rule The Markets Together!

PS: Go ahead and register for the scholarship copy of "The Code" if you haven't yet! (You'll be redirected after you register)

Correlation Code in Forex Trading

Correlation Code is a forex trading system that exploits the correlation patterns between currencies pairs which have been happening every minute in the forex market. It is a system based on unchangeable universal fundamental laws.

Example of such universal laws : “When temperatures INCREASES, sales of ice cream INCREASE as well”

Jason Fielder has spent 12 months analyzing 82 different forex strategies based on exploiting “The Correlation Secret“.

After a series of trial testing, 8 profitable and consistent correlation strategies were picked to form the Entire “Forex Correlation Code” Trading System

Here are the main benefits of using The Correlation Secret system against other trading system:

1. Correlation Trading is very easy to identify and trade

2. Correlation Trading is backed by proven, timeless, universal market fundamentals which give you a very high winning accuracy

3. Correlation Trading gives you the PREDICTABLE VOLATILITY you need to trade with confidence and accuracy

There is nothing to use by browsing through the following link:

Visit The Correlation Code Homepage

Update on DX-Spot V after October expiration


It is amazing that the first week after October expiration was similar to what we saw during the second half of May 2009. After convincing move above 10,000 points, DX-Spot V refused to budge on my original "Judgement Day".

Instead, it made a bold move to even close above 10,000 on 19, 20, 22 October 2009. This is an encouraging sign.

DX-Spot V made a 52 week high at 10070 on 21 Oct, and it took approximately 19 days from 2 Oct low to hit this target. The 64m question is where DX-Spot V will be heading. I turned on the daily trend filter in Profitsource, and as you can see, the last 4 bars are black. It means that the market participants are unable to reach any consensus as to where DX-SpotV should go. Alternatively, bulls and bears are beating each other day in day out.

9800 apparently is a near term support level, and right now, I am going to stay neutral until I see bulls or bears have an edge over the other. The next Judgement Day as marked in my Profitsource chart is actually 22 Dec, 2009 which marks a new trading year from Gann's perspective. This will be a significant turning point I am paying close attention.

My experience in reading fundamentals

Very often, I heard from students who have been taught to read only the technical charts, and apply technical analysis in trading the currency market. At the same time, I have also consistently heard from students who have been taught to only trade the major pairs because of the tight slippage.

So, if one is to specialize only in GBP/USD, he could miss opportunities even though his view on strong GBP might be right. Keep in mind that in trading currency, we are trading the relative strength of the base currency and quote currency. So, the way I trade forex is to apply my fundamentals first to decide the stronger currency and the weaker currency so that it gives me the best bang for the buck.

I do a weekly analysis of the performance of the major 5 - EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, against JPY and USD. It is important to chart the correlation between JPY and FSTE/ DAX and INDU, and do the same between US and FSTE/DAX and INDU. Therefore, if the correlation exists, I would roughly know that USD and JPY will be my quote currency. Of course, if JPY is stronger than USD, and if the equity market exhibits a strong uptrend, I will use USD as the quote currency and not JPY because I need to quote currency to be weaker. Does it make sense to you?

In positioning the trading opportunities by looking at the major 5 as base currency, it is useful to plot them in the format of major 6. The above is an example of how I plot my major 6 - GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, GBP/NZD, GBP/USD and GBP/CHF. Notice that the chart is going to the upside for all major 6. This means that GBP is displaying a strength. Here you will need to understand what has happened in England.

So, with a bit more understanding of the fundamental, and the relative strength of each currency, you will realize how easy to choose the pair that gives you the best bang for the buck in a particular day. Like I shared with Ivan C in my Facebook, Oct 15's session should be a day for GBP/JPY because JPY has been weak given a bull run in the equity market. It should not be a case for GBP/CAD because commodity currency remained strong. On Oct 16, however, CAD showed weakness and this changed the game plan completely.

The above is an example of flexibility, and being flexible allows us to be in a better position than many people on the street, who struggled and pondered how to trade the currency market.

Example of FTM's Momentum Method on 9 Oct 2009

If you have been a professional forex trader, you will realize that despite the super weakness in USD, GBP was in a more jia lak (Hokkien - meaning worse) position over the last two weeks.

Given the weakness in USD on Wed and Thurs session, typically one can expect a relief rally in USD on Friday session. Don't get me wrong. I am not expecting a USD relief rally because I trade on what I see and not what I think.

Well, USD indeed had a rebound on Friday session How did I see this? The first sign is a rebound of USD/JPY, telling me that USD was no longer weak on Friday's Asian session. This is the first sign. The session sign was the range bound action in the high beta currencies against USD. It was telling me that USD was not that weak on Friday compared to Wed's and Thurs' session. Of course, since AUD/USD has made such a strong move over the weak, Friday is typically expected to be a profit taking day, and I can understand that this might be the case (Smile!).

When GBP remains weak, and JPY is weak, there is no way to trade GBP/JPY on Friday. Instead, it makes perfect sense to trade GBP/USD to look for a short position. So, this is my rationale of going to look for short position on GBP/USD.

Using Bill's Foreign Time Machine Momentum Method, there were two trading opportunities on Friday's session.

Trade 1

Setup bar was formed at 12:30pm candle (based on SG Time), and one would immediately go short at 1:00pm. Using FTM's Momentum Method, one should have exited the position around European session for an approximately 50 pips profit. This is no brainer in my view.

Trade 2

Setup bar was formed at 11:00pm candle (based on SG time), and one would immediately go short at 11:30pm at 1.5915. Guess what? If you don't want to hold the trade over the weekend, you could have exited the trade at the close of Friday's US session for approximately 70 pips profits. Again, this is no brainer to me.

Some of you may ask how I picked these trades? First, I am a fundamental trader and trade based on the relative strength and weakness in individual currency. So, I am not a specialist of any currency pair. In fact, I can trade anything under the sun. Like in this particular case, do I force myself to trade EUR and not GBP when GBP is more jia lak than EUR? And do I force myself to trade GBP/JPY and not GBP/USD when USD is stronger than JPY on Friday's session. So, as professional traders, we have to be inflexible to be flexible. Be more alert to what happened in the global economy and we will see tons of opportunities everywhere in the currency market.

In terms of money management, I don't really the FTM's recommended exit method. Instead, I have said before. I adopted Ross Beck's multiple lots exit method, which is a method I am more comfortable with than Bill's FTM method. It's ok. As professional traders, we have to understand our trading personalities and trade on what we feel comfortable. There is no right or wrong way in trading. In fact, like my options trading, I typically mix and match various people's ideas to become greeksman's trading method.

Hope you enjoy this sharing so far on my FTM journey.

Let's see what happened before the Judgment Day


Autumn Equinox proved to be a powerful anchoring point from Gann's perspective. After Sep 23 when INDU hit 2009 High (9855), it dropped almost 500 points in literally 9 trading days, and made a come back after bouncing off 50 Day Moving Average (the dynamic support).

I raised this question in my blog a week ago, whether the history will repeat. Someone asked me what happened on Oct 11, 2007? It seems to me that we have a short term memory and the Lehman Brothers and AIG collapse becomes forgettable. Well, that was the day when INDU made the all time high before it made a U-turn till March 2009. Oct 11, 2009 is a Sunday and therefore it won't be a trading day.

All indicators I have here are telling me that there is no reason for INDU will fall:

1. 10, 20, 30, 50 Simple Moving Average are still going up (although SMA is a laggard as we all know).
2. INDU is trading above 50SMA and 200 SMA.
3. 13,34 SMA (John Murphy's favourite) has not shown a bearish crossover.
4. We are still in the 20-week bullish cycle (if you have been following Tom Gentile and Jay Kappael)
...
and many more

On the other hand, when almost everyone is bullish on the market, I have to be extremely careful. On Oct 9, 2009, when INDU closed above 9800 for the second time, the volume was lower than the average volume (NYSE 988, vs. closing avg of 1227; Nasdaq 1929, vs. 2269). Based on my sector analysis, it appeared to me that the last run from the Oct 2 low till Oct 9 high was a result of USD weakness and this in turn helped Crude Oil to rebound like nobody business. The market is also cooking an early recovery story when the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the interest rate by 25 basis point, causing AUD, NZD and CAD hitting 2009 High against the weaker USD. The picture seems to be rosy to the public, and yet the issue is that the market participation is skewed to one or two sectors.


This is a SPX performance chart showing what happened over the last 10 trading days, which represented what happened in the market from Oct 2 low. The lack of participation by the Financials and Semiconductors sectors raised an alarm to me.

Using John Murphy's intermarket analysis, we need to see these two sectors to participate and clearly it was the case. When everyone is still going long on commodity sectors - oil, metal, gold etc, Kathy Lien from GFT Forex made the comment on Oct 9 that in the latest CFTC report, "forex positioning in the futures market is nearing extreme levels.". This raised the issue as to whether the story of dollar weakness will likely come to an end. If this happens, what we saw in the strength in AUD, NZD and CAD over the last few trading sessions should come to an end. How about oil? It will likely behave in the same way.

From my reading of the weekly FX charts, GBP remained weak for 2 weeks already and did not really participate in the bullish move. England perhaps is still in trouble based on the Manufacturing Production Index announced on 5 Oct. EUR has been in the range for a few months already and the weekly chart looks slightly neutral to bearish to me.

So, there are signs that the market strength may come to a pause (I won't call it an end to be fair and remain objective). I am not sure whether the market will turn to the downside during the Oct expiration week. However, that said according to Stock Trader's Almanac 2009, Oct 12 (the Columbus Day) has been more likely than not an "UP" day (23 times out of the last 28 but 2007 had been the one and only one exception in 7 years - and that was the day when the market decisively made the U-turn). Oct expiration week also marked a "down" day for INDU.

This Gann chart I posted above will be updated after Oct expiration. In the meantime, I closed out most of my bullish positions for a profit or loss or whatever it is. When I see the anchoring point on the chart, as I told my students, it's an alert, and alert telling me that I have to be extra careful.

Interesting, Gann chart has not disappointed me so far since I learnt from my Ultimate Gann Course. There is nothing right or wrong here. Like I chit-chat in Facebook with my friends, some don't believe Gann stuff. It's perfectly fine. Yet, I respected Gann's analysis, so much so that I am committed to drill into Gann stuff at a higher level than where I was a year ago. So, if you respect me, respect by agreeing not to disagree or to believe Gann stuff. Just leave me alone, and we will stay in a peaceful community.

Till then, have a good trading weekend ahead.

Lessons from get-rich courses

This article was published in The Sunday Times on October 4, 2009. Of course, due to the copyright reason, I am not able to re-produce this article. If you are interested, you can always grab an electronic copy if you are a subscriber of the Straits Times. [By the way, I am aware that many bloggers will simply copy and paste the article in their blogs. This is in breach of copyright under Singapore Copyrights Act. That is, there are legal consequences to copy and paste the article in their blogs without seeking either permission or waiver from SPH.]

The learned author shared with her experience in signing up a 4-day course on options trading and having paid > S$5,000 for this course. She concluded that she did not benefit from this course by objectively giving her reasons. This is good. She did not blame the trainer or the organization providing the course.

"Maybe it's because I was not hungry enough or I was just too busy with my work and family. It did not help that I fell ill immediately after the course"

"To be fair, XXX still invites me for refresher talks and is willing to sit me through a one-to-one mentor programme, but I cannot find the time."

So, the learnt author has correctly pointed out some critical success factors as to how one can benefit from these courses:

1. Be realistic
2. Setting aside time to learn and practise
3. Track record of the training firm and trainers.
4. Don't invest more than what we can afford to lose

No doubt the trainer undertakes to teach whatever he/she can teach. The students have to play their part and not to expect miracles. In other words, if the students' mindset is to go for the course once, and expect that they can trade and make tons of money in the market, perhaps they should not have had signed up for the course. Trading is a craft, and it will take time for us to practise the craft. And because each of us has different time commitment and other obligations, our learning curve will be different. Let's face it. If we spend only 30 minutes a day to practise, are we realistic to make money within a month or two after completing the course. Go figure.

Instead, Singaporean mindset is like this - they first of all will blame the trainers. They will conclude that the trainers are suckers and the public are the poor sheep. Is it fair to blame all the trainers that they have only one motive, i.e. to make money out of students because they cannot trade well. It also appears that the public have this perception that people who teach cannot trade, or people cannot teach and trade at the same time. I am not sure how this comes about because I have quite a number of trading buddies who can teach and share their ideas, while they are trading pretty well. So, if we are listening to hearsay, without going to look for counter examples of such limiting belief, who are we to judge at the end? Go figure.

Finally, teaching is not an easy task I must say. As a trainer, whenever I am asked to teach a course, I have students interest first. I will find out what they want to hear from me, and gauge their levels to make sure that they know how to look for the answers.

I hate to spoonfeed people. If a student comes to me and is basically looking for fish, my heart will go away. If a student has done his homework beforehand, I am happy to share my experience and direct the student to what he is looking for. In other words, if you give 200% and are committed to do the best, trainer like myself will likewise give our 200%.

To end on this note, I would like to share with my readers a recent response to a student who is dyeing to recoup his tuition fee in four months' time, and he is literally looking for quick tips to recoup his money, and showing no sign to respect trading as a business. Here you go:

1. My philosophy has always been that trading is a business, and it will take time for beginners to master the craft. There is no magic overnight nor miracle. It also depends on how much time we are committed to invest, regardless of our other family or personal obligations. It's like driving. The more time we spend on learning how to drive a car, the faster we get our license to drive on the road. It does not mean that we become a professional driver on the road. Beginners have to put on a P-plate and will be frowned upon by other road users (me included). Yet, having been driving for two decades on the road, I still cannot beat Lewis Hamilton because he is a professional F1 racer and he is of another level of skillset. Understand that trading is the same. It depends on how much we are committed. I told my students during preview very frankly if they are after recouping the course fee, they should not have signed up for my course. They should not even go for another course and simply forget about trading. Carrying this mindset is dangerous because it will sabotage that person. Let's be frank and honest here. There won't be a magic and whether you perceived it to be a misunderstanding or misrepresentation, in one way or the other, by Optionetics or any other people around you, I will assure you that this is my guarantee - if you are willing to give you 200% to invest time to perfect the craft, the instructor team (me included) will give you our 200% to assist you.

Virtual trading is a good start and from a trading psychology viewpoint, you have to do what you are comfortable in trading. So, what is the deal if you are trading spread using Jan 2010 options? Are you going to force a trade using near month option and yet if you are not sure what it means in terms of risk, you are going to lose even more. Assuming that you are getting refunds from Optionetics, if you continue to trade that way, you will be bound to lose a lot of money in the market, and no one is going to refund you. Have you considered this potential danger? Are you going to get refunds from Optionetics and call it a day? If so, why would you sign up for the course in the first place? So, I see a lot of internal conflicts and I can feel your frustration. My experience of you is that it may be the appropriate time for you to reflect on yourself.

2. Optionetics does not encourage one to daytrade. It's been clearly explained in 2-day seminar. Of course, we cannot stop anyone from doing daytrade if he/she chooses to, and he/she has to take 100% responsibility for his/her own conduct. Yet, in reality, a lot of people will choose to be blamer (one of the 5 recognized categories by Virginia Satir - go and google this lady if you are interested). I would encourage you to do whatever it takes to shift your mindset by taking your time to perfect the craft. It's not about reading another book, or going for another course, or learning from another person. Trading is a very personal thing and is a lonely business. We do a lot of self-talk everyday. There is this saying that we talk to ourselves 60,000 times a day. In trading, I will double or even triple this number. Do you realize that you are actually talking to yourself now? So, my experience of you is that you've got to know who you are, not as a person, but as a trader.

3. So, in the moment of time but not future, ask yourself these questions: have you done up a trading business plan? Have you found out your preferred markets, strategies? Have you figured out your risk appetite, and the rules applicable to money management and risk management? How do you manage your discipline if your internal voice is telling you to be "naughty"? What is your proposed research & development (i.e. continuous educational development) expenditure? I seek your understanding that Jack spent one whole year in the US just to learn all these from his mentors before he sees the exponential growth in his trading performance. Without a business plan, we will always be making unnecessary time wasting roundtrips.

4. While it may sound disappointing to you whether it is true or not, I seek your understanding that if we respect who we are as a trader, we will grow as a trader. The moment we have self-doubt, we will not behave as a trader but just another person on the street who is looking for another advertisement about someone selling a trading course and alleging that his/her students make 7000% in a day. There are too many blacksheep in Singapore who are selling us dreams. Trading success is not about knowing one or two strategies. All my successful trading buddies subscribe to one common theme - managing our risk and getting to understand trading psychology. On trading psychology, it is a self-experimental exercise, which means that you have to practise on your own. No one is able to teach you this. In terms of good reference books, I will recommend you to read "Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder and "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. These two books are on the top of my list in terms of trading psychology.

5. Finally, understand that trading is not a QTBR scheme (i.e. quick to be rich scheme). If a neuro-surgeon has to master the craft for a decade, what makes us think that trading is not the same? In other words, are we able to succeed so easily by reading a few books or going for one course, and then we can trade like a pro? Unfortunately, many other course providers are selling us this dream., and suck our money. If you have a chance to talk to me in the next 2-day class on 19-20 Nov, I am happy to elaborate this further.

6. Now, I want you to reflect what you have done since the last 2-day class. Have you been following the markets day in day out? Have you finished reading the Home Study Course for 10 times? Have you watched all DVDs / listened to the CDs? Have you been reading articles in Optionetics.com everyday? Have you exhausted available resources like going to my discussion board to ask me question? Ask yourself whether you have given your 200% here. I am not saying that you haven't. I seek your understanding that if you can give yourself a true and honest assessment on what you have done, it will answer a lot of questions you might have.

Example of FTM's Breakout and Momentum Methods on Non-Farm Payroll Night (2 October 2009)

It's always interesting on the day when US Non-Farm Payroll is announced (at 8:30am EST). The bar set for NFP to me was pretty high and in view of the ADP announcement made two nights ago, it is quite ambitious for the actual NFP number to beat the forecast (or even touch the forecast number). So, a negative 263K number with a 9.8% unemployment rate should be bad enough to cause the market to tank. Indeed, futures were sold off here immediately after NFP number was announced. When the cash market was open at 9:30am EST, it did pretty much the same thing.

Here is where a professional trader will do as opposed to an amateur. When everyone feels that it is bad enough, it's time to go for contrarian trading idea. When the number is bad, normally one will expect that people go long USD and JPY because it's logically sound. People are risk averse and hence they will go for risk aversion currencies. As professional trader, on the other hand, we are trading based on what we see and not what we think.

From my major 12 using Jimmy's Band (taught in FXTE's Trading Tactics Coaching Class), I saw that there was a reverse situation when USD and JPY were sold off instead of the other way. Hence, it's time to get ready to do some long trade against USD and JPY. So, I used Jimmy's Band to identify the pairs I am choosing. USD/JPY was going up, and hence it is logical to choose Yen pairs to go long to achieve a better bang for the buck!

Breakout Method

Here is the FTM Breakout Method on EUR/JPY 30 min chart.


The set-up bar was formed at 10:00am EST, and we would enter a long EUR/JPY based on FTM Breakout method at 10:30am EST. By following this simple trading method, we would have easily made 90 pips within 30 mins which is US$900 on a standard lot.








Momentum Method

Now, let us look at another trade using FTM's momentum method. Again, the idea originated from Jimmy's Band as discussed above. The following is a 15 min chart on GBP/JPY and a set up bar was formed at 12:45pm EST and we would go long on GBP/JPY at 1:00 pm EST. The tricky thing is that it was a Friday night and the European Market was closed at that time. Hence, there was some internal conflict to choose a longer than hourly time frame to trade. Therefore, scalping using a 15 min chart made perfect sense in this situation.

If one were to study the FTM Momentum method closely, he could argue that this set-up bar was not really a set-up bar. In my opinion, it is true if we strictly follow the method. However, this is where the flexibility comes into play as a professional trader. Isn't a set up for Forex Nitty Gritty's method? Yes, indeed. Can we combine FNG and FTM's Momentum method here? Yes, we can. So, here is my answer.

So, a nice 25-30 pips within the next 15 mins were made. If one followed closely, there was a proper set-up bard at 2:00pm EST using strictly the FTM momentum method. Well, by that time, I went to bed and sweet dream. Hence, leave it to folks who could stay up. Trading should be less stress exercise and thus, if we can't trade at that time, then do something else.

An Example of FTM's Breakout Method

Early this morning, there were many opportunities available in my major 12. However, the better one will be using FTM's Breakout Method. The following is a snapshot of EUR/USD hourly chart which demonstrated a probable set-up using FTM's breakout method. A long trade can be initiated at 14609 with a stop loss of 1.4577 (i.e. 31 pips risk)



The trade is still ongoing and currently, using the breakout method, it is a risk-free trade. Let's see how it goes.

Another Example on FTM's Breakout Method

This is a bearish set-up on EUR/USD hourly chart based on Forex Time Machine's Breakout Method.

Based on the entry set-up rule, a short position was placed at 9:00am SG time and within an hour, TP1 and TP2 were hit. I applied a different methodology here because I like the 3x multiple lots systems which I learnt from Ross Beck and Jimmy Young in the FXTE program. At this point of time, there is a gravy train on the last lot that is being operating. The trade yielded 62 pips after hitting TP1 and TP2, and this means that it is $620 per standard lot.

Fundamentally, I am bullish in US$ and bearish in EUR. So, the fundamental understanding I have helped me to identify this trading opportunity.

Does it look familiar?

Talking to my trading buddy, Conrad can be quite fun sometimes because this fellow has very strong insight in reading the market. Each time when I talk to him, he will put some money in my pocket. He has directed me to read some mind-blowing books which I told him I would do it in the following days. In the meantime, let me put up a chart showing what I have learnt from the Ultimate Gann Course so far from Safety In the Market

Here is the daily chart of DJ-SpotV. It was about 227 days from 14 July 2006 to 20 Feb 2007 (i.e. Points A and B). Using simple ABC set-up analysis and the Balance Time Tool in SITM Module in Profitsource, the projection of another top would be around 11 Oct 2007, and that was the day when INDU reached the all time high. It's amazing and blowing my mind when I was doing these projections myself.

From the Ultimate Gann Course, I also learnt to draw Fibo using calendar days and using this technique, it helps to identify whether there are possible signs that there would be a change in trend. Again, it's mind blowing stuff.


Now, here is my projection and firstly, I am not providing any advice here. I am doing what the tools are telling me to do, and plot my lines accordingly based on the rules and guidelines. So, if the market chooses to prove me wrong, I am wrong and it is ok to be wrong.

At this moment, INDU continues to show an uptrend, and it will remain intact if the Fibo calendar days support this view (and so far, this guideline has yet to be violated). Using ABC set-up, there is a reasonable time around 9-10 Oct 2009 where INDU will finish up to 10400-10500. Keep in mind that this day is the 2nd anniversary day (approximately of course) of INDU's all time high. So, will history repeat itself?


It's just amazing that the more I learn Gann stuff, the more I discover on the history. Gann believes that history repeats and the tools are helping me to discover the history.

Let's see what happens when the 2 yr anniversary is approaching.

Forex Time Machine (Review)

http://www.theforextimemachine.com/home_200909.php

Someone in my discussion board asked whether it is worth paying a few thousand dollars for getting the proper investment education. I was happily explaining to this person that when it comes to investing in myself, I need not think hard because I know before and now, and even after that investing in myself will generate a huge return in the long run. So, what happened was that I grabbed a copy of Forex Time Machine and studied the methods in about two days.

As a professional trader, grabbing the methodology of the three methods in FTM is quite easy. Like Bill nicely put in his Q&A upon the launch of FTM, experienced traders will still benefit from the course because it is perfectly fine to add on additional tools and trading methods to their toolboxes, and this means that these experienced traders are armed with more weapons and are flexible to trade the ever-changing market.

FTM discusses three trading methods - Breakout, Momentum and Spring. Spring method is also part of the previous course "Forex Income Engine 2.0". The interesting part to me is therefore the breakout and momentum.
Momentum method


Imagine that this is the set-up of the momentum method as discussed in FTM. There are just a few technical indicators in the chart. For me, I prefer to trade currency using hourly chart although FTM methodology is fractal in nature which means that you can use it for longer and shorter time frames.

Although it is not part of the requirement to understand the fundamental, by combining what I learnt from Jimmy Young of FXTE pertaining to how to read the market from a top-down approach, picking up a bearish trading opportunity in GBP/USD is no brainer, to be frank with you.

So, based on the momentum method, we will enter a short GBP/USD position at around 16192, and within two hours, we should be able to close this position around 1.6000. That's like 192 pips more or less, and just one trade using standard lot, the course fee has been recouped.

Breakout Method

How about the breakout method? Here is just another example of the breakout method set-up.

As you can see from the chart on the left, there are just a few technical indicators to be used. However, while it is not discussed in the course, I believe it is important to understand the fundamental. So, Jimmy's insight in reading the market helps me to determine that when the market is weak, USD is up because of a strong correlation over the last two weeks, and an inverse correlation with the commodities such as gold and oil, shorting AUD/USD is again a no-brainer job.

See we don't need to follow 100% what the course discusses. The key point as a trader is to understand our own trading preference and psychology, and copy & paste what seems to work for us, and that's is. This is why it is so hard for a newbie to make money immediately because he has yet to develop the craft. It does not mean the course does not work. It works, and yet it works because we understand how to trade the methods and apply what suits us.

For this trade, we should be able to make around 30 pips within an hour or US$300 using one standard lot.

Unfortunately, I understand that the launch has come to an end. For those who procrastinated or were skeptical about paying a few thousand dollars, sorry to hear that. It's normal for human beings to be skeptical. You may need to wait for the next launch then.

I mentioned to this person that there is actually nothing to lose because the course provides MBG (Money Back Guarantee). So, if we are not happy with the course, we can return it to Bill and incur at most administrative fees on shipment. At least we give ourselves an experience to find out if the product works for us. Again, human psychology tells us that most of us will not even dare to make this move - hence explaining why for every thing the mankind do, only 5% of the people will eventually be the Elite Club.

Will I be able to make tons of $ after attending a $6k course?

Is it the follow-thru impact after my InvestFair 09 talk two weeks ago? I got frequent questions from a number of people who are asking for my opinion on options courses that are being run in Singapore.

If you are in a rush to pay $6k to attend a 2-day or 3-day options trading course, and your objective is to make quick bucks in the shortest time frame possible, I would urge you to donate the same sum to charitable organizations in Singapore because you can get 2.5 times of deduction against your income in 2009, and you will help other folks.

The market is cruel. However, what makes us think that trading is as easy as writing "ABC"? What makes us think that by putting $6k with someone, we can make quick bucks in the short period of time. Is this guy selling us a dream?

Options trading is a tough game, and yet it is possible to make money when one is committed to learn in the manner in which professional options traders are trading. For every hour of actual trading experience one can clock, he/she would have to put in at least 10 times of the effort.

In some of these advertisements in the Straits' Times, it was alleged that one can spend only 15 to 20 minutes a day to do trading. While I don't deny the correctness of this statement, it must be read in the right context. It is true if we are referring to people who have been in trading business day in day out. In other words, we are talking about seasoned traders. It cannot be applied in my opinion to newbies.

If you think by putting $6k with a trader who is teaching you how to trade options successfully and allow you to make lots of money from options trading in a short period of time, please do your due diligence by asking this person a couple of things. You are doing yourself a favour by asking these questions so that you know this "teacher" is not selling you a dream which is not real in the real world (perhaps it is true in lala-land).

I have nothing against anyone who is committed to learn and master options trading. However, I continue to stress that one should learn the stuff from someone who is ex-floor trader or at least has been trained by ex-floor trader. if whoever taught you cannot explain the things I wrote in my blog, and is however telling you that you must believe in those myths, please re-consider.

Whoever told you that you need not study delta, gamma, theta and vega, and you don't need to pay attention to the volatility, and whoever told you not to buy out-of-the money option without explaining in maths why this is the case, you know what to do.

Whoever told you that you must be options sellers because 80% of the options expire worthless, and whoever is teaching you to do high risk high probability trade without explaining profitability versus probability, you know what to do.

Finally, if whoever is telling you to do short-term trading (like intraday trading), and if he fails to explain to you the PDT rule, you know what to do.

Trading is not as easy as what the public might think, I reiterate. Trading consists of hard work, and is an art. If we are willing to spend time and treat this as a business (I have discussed this in my Optionetics February 09 monthly online forum), then it is possible to survive in long run. If we are not prepared to spend that kind of hours, I would recommend that you forget about trading, and you pass me the money instead and I will spend it for you.

Good luck for those who have read the ST and are about to pay $6k for an options course thinking that they can attack the market immediately. We love you!

Myths on Options Trading (Part II)

1. One loses money on a long straddles for one and only one reason - i.e. because the underlying does not move.

Does the trader ever bother to understand how vega will hurt or help a long straddles?
Does the trader know how gamma works to allow him/her to profit from a long straddles?

2. Options are very risky .... they are like gambling

Do we know that options can be used as a protective tool, thereby allowing us to protect our valuable assets?

3. Options are not easy to trade

Well, are we blaming others or ourselves if we are not committed to trade options properly. Are we complaining about educational providers who are selling expensive courses? Are we constantly looking for the Holy Grail, i.e. the free and most effective resources? Does information come free every time?

4. Some traders believe that the Put/Call Ratio is a measure of market sentiment. It is also believed to be a contrary indicator.

Well, do we ignore synthetics completely? Selling a put is equal to long stock and a short call. Buying a call is synthetically the same as buying the stock and a put. So, if you already own the stock, and you buy a put to protect it, the PC Ratio will go up, ceteris paribus. Does it mean that you are bearish?

More to come!!

TRUE OR FALSE

If you can answer all questions correctly, you know your stuff well

1. Being assigned on a short option causes you to lose money.

2. Being assigned increases your risk.

3. The use of market orders is discouraged because market makers will move the market when they see your order.

4. Market makers match buyers with sellers.

5. Implied volatility is based directly off of the historical volatility.

6. Open interest is important.

7. Daily option volume is important.

8. Credit spreads and debit spreads are the same thing.

9. Market makers purposely over/undervalue options from time to time.

10. Risk free trades can be created and opened in one trade.

Source: http://www.optionetics.com/forums/topic.asp?fid=136&id=51766&page=6

More Myths on Options Trading

Options trading business can be a viable business, and yet it's been tainted by many blacksheep in the Singapore market whereby public associated with options trading as risky, and options traders (especially those who teach as well as trade) are selling dreams to the poor public.

I walked past a bookshop last Sunday and happened to see a book written by a learned author who is selling his options seminar in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia, and I admired this fellow who claimed that he has been in trading options for more than 10 years, and he is advocating "non-directional trading". So, I read with interest on this book (and it cost me some S$20) and here is what I found:

a. options selling is better than options buying because 80% of the options expire worthless.

The learnt author said "This is a proven statistical fact. Statistics shows that 80% of options expire worthless. If you buy an option, your chances of winning are only 20%. If you are a seller of an option, your odds of winning are 80%."

First of all, I am not sure where the source of this so-called statistics. Even though this is only my sixth year in options trading business, I already knew this myth some three years ago whereby the so-called "80%" thingy is really a myth.

In an article written by Albert Brinkman published in Summer 2007, he quoted the OCC's 2006 statistics which showed that 31% of the options were unexercised at expiration, 17% were exercised and 52% were closed out prior to expiration. So, where does this 80% thingy come about?

Ok, if you are still in doubt, think about this, just pull out any option chain of your favourite stocks. Regardless of what the stock does, for every put that goes in-the-money, a call will go out-of-the money. So, if someone like this learnt author tells you that 80% of the option expire worthles, you must do one thing - question his math and/ or logic. Ask for official proof rather than hearing him say according to someone ...

b. Always be options seller and never be options buyers

The learnt author also advocates that options sellers will always win and thus we should never become options buyer. True enough, if we sell every option and the stock does not move, the only way we will fail to make money is if all options traded solely for real value. However, stocks do move, and options have to account for that movement through addition of extrinsic value. This value is necessary since if it did not exist, it will be true that options buyers can devise strategies to always make, or at least never lose money.

Options sellers may make money more often than options buyer. However, everything happens for a reason. When sellers lose, they lose far more than what they tend to make on each options sale. On the contrary, buyers may lose more often but each win may return more than several losses. This therefore leads to the point where people tend to confuse something that works most of the time without something that is safe. Obviously the two are not equal. Russian roulette works 5 out of 6 times. With such a high probability, do you want to play now? It is quite safe to cross the road when you see green man. Does it mean it is guaranteed safe? What if you encounter a reckless driver who fails to see the red light or ignores the red light, just shoot it?

So, these two points to me are myths - and if they are not clarified in the books, it is as good as another monkey selling dreams to the public.

Then, what happened today is that I was clearing my old stuff since I am going to move house next month. And I found something that excited me a few years back about options trading, and now to the point where I am, I could not help but laugh harder.

The following represent extracts of a guru's teaching materials, and let's see what is wrong with these statements:

'So, what volatility should options have that allow us to capture the desired movement of the option. We would like to see volatility no greater than 65%'

Guru is teaching us that we should look for THE SWEET SPOT on volatility. So, now many gurus are telling us that there are THE SWEET SPOT on delta, and this guru added THE SWEET SPOT on volatility. If we compare the IV on the options on Pharma stocks and that on the large cap stocks, are we suggesting that we should forget Pharma stocks since the IV can be > 65%. Should IV be a relative number rather than an absolute number? Folks who have our Optionetics Platinum should be able to debunk this myth easily.

'Refrain from buying options that are OTM'"

I did not take this statement out of context but this is exactly what the guru said in the manual. Keep in mind that there is always a trade-off between time and profitability. OTM options exist for its own reason. Just like there is something for options seller to grab and options buyer to grab. Again, the guru is advocating the purchase of only ITM/ ATM options? Folks who have done our two day intermediate class know that OTM options happen for a reason.

'look to purchase ITM or ATM options that have a minimum of 6 to 8 months to expiration. Once we have been filled, we will then look to sell the front month ATM or OTM options.'

The guru advocates this strategy on DIA and QQQQ as strategy for longer-term trades. However, traders should be mindful with how sensitive these longer-term options can be to volatility. So, what if there is a drop of IV on the longer-term option, the traders can be hurt. Folks who have done time spread strategy in a professional way will only that it is far more effective, and mathematically proven that time spread should be constructed using back-to-back basic by selling the front month option and at the same time, buying the immediate next month option, since time spread if done on ATM basis is after theta decay.

So, knowing the open interest of an option being considered for trade, is critical!

It's been again and again debunked by our instructor team that open interest has nothing to do with liquidity. Obviously, we want to get into an option easily in and out but this is governed by liquidity of the option, and it has nothing to do with OI, which is a totally different matter. Liquidity of the option is governed by the bid-ask spread. Are we suggesting that we should not be the first buyer of JNPR Oct option when it is launched next week because OI will be zero? So, go figure.

So, guys, the moral of the story is that when you are listening to a person who claim to trade options successfully, he/she may be doing it in a consistent way and fortunately within a certain period of time when the market condition remains unchanged. Having said that, if we wanna learn options properly, ask the person where he learns options and whether the person teaching him/her knows the options mechanics in a professional way.

So, when choosing an options trading course, if the person does not cover the greeks, and when asked why 2+2 must be 4, he fails to explain, you know how "GOOD" that person is.

I will be speaking on 23 Aug 2009 at InvestFair 2009 for Optionetics. The chosen topic is about building our edges in finding limited risk options trades. In order to allow us to do this, we have to have the proper knowledge in options trading. What I propose to do is to take the advantage of this session to demystify certain myths that exist in the public domain.

Myth 1 - Are puts and calls the same? Why would someone suggest to track Put/Call Ratio?

Myth 2 - We should be credit spread specialists because we can get paid to initiate such trades

Myth 3 - There is always THE BEST sweet spot (i.e. the BEST delta) for every option trade. Delta 25 is the best. No, Delta 75 is the sweet spot. Who is right and who is wrong?

Myth 4 - When you sell an option whose premium is above $0.25, you won't be assigned. Are you sure?

Myth 5 - Debit spread is easier to understand than credit spread because credit spread has margin to deal with. So, are debit spread and credit spread not the same?

There are many more myths I can find. Let's do my part to demystify at least the above, as there are so many monkeys teaching options in Singapore who know nuts about options. They only know how to sell dreams to the public.

So, interested to listen to me? See you on 23 Aug 2009 at Suntec City Convention Center.

Optionetics Expert Seminar - Live in Singapore (12-14 August 2009)

Once again, the annual Expert Seminar featuring Tom Gentile will be live in Singapore from 12-14 August 2009 at Furama City Center, Singapore. Nick Gazzolo, one of our senior instructors will be the co-instructor with Tom.

For the first time in history, Expert Seminar 2009 offers to both Optionetics and non-Optionetics students. In this seminar, participants will be exposed to Tom Gentile's world of system trading. Also, detailed discussion on certain advanced strategies such as Collars, Broken Wing Butterflys and Tarzan Loves Jane will be included.

Seats are filling fast, and there are limited seats offered to non-Optionetics students at a discounted price. For details, please visit the following link:

http://fxtrading.na3.acrobat.com/p51612760/

and do contact Optionetics Singapore office at http://www.optionetics.com.sg for details.

Recent Update

Hi folks, I have been absent for a while as there are a number of projects I have recently embarked on and thus have yet to update anything in my blog.

Quick Update:

Monthly Forum

I am helping Optionetics Singapore to run the monthly online forum which should be every third Thursday of the month. Watch out for an e-mail blast from Optionetics Singapore two weeks before the forum. If you are not on the list, please send an e-mail to classes@optionetics.com.sg or classes@optionetics.com.hk. Of course, I will post the information regularly on my Facebook. Keep a look out of that.

What has been discussed since Feb are:

1. Creating a business plan and trading psychology
2. Identifying Trading Opportunities using seasonal patterns
3. Identifying Trading Opportunities using sector rotation concepts
4. Identifying Trading Opportunities using Profitsource as a tool

The last forum was in particular interesting because it unlocks many folks' limiting belief that they are not able to trade Wave 3 because many instructors have told them this is not possible. Well, I have already demonstrated in my forum how to look for Wave 3's price target and created a few a-ha to the folks. Well, I promise to the folks that in the future runs, I am going to do more on Fibo time analysis and right now, I am running practical test intensively to train myself to identify Gartley Pattern. Why is this important? We are in the trending market and therefore, these stuffs become important in my trading toolbox.

Advanced Coaching Online Classes

For advanced Optionetics students who recently did ICT, ITT and Master ICT Classes in Singapore and Hong Kong, you will have the opportunities to meet with me online three times starting from next Thurs to refresh what we have learnt in these classes. They are only open to a privileged group of students who have committed to advance their education. It's also a gesture from my viewpoint to express my gratitude to these students who allow me to share my experience with them. The class will be 1.5 hours and will be in the usual "trading out loud" format. So, there won't be any slides or presentations. We go straight to analyse and discuss real trades for education purposes. Honestly I am looking forward to it.

Forex Education

While I told myself my R&D budget for 2009 will be frozen, I decided to invest in two forex courses to continue to enhance my knowledge.

1) OU Forex

I have signed up for OU Forex with a view to getting another perspective of forex trading. I must say that there are lots of materials to read everyday. In fact, it's a standard for me to spend at least an hour every morning to go through the new stuff and market analysis. Over the weekend, or on my off days, I will have to catch up with the daily webinar by Forex Joe and Sunil. Oh well, I have learnt a lot because Sunil has discussed how to use FIbonacci as a trading rule and of course, he shared with us his specialty - Harmonic Pattern. This impresses me a lot. The exclusive forum also contains very rich information from traders from different part of the world.

2) Forex Nitty Gritty

Again, I signed up for this because the fee is pretty cheap, and it happens to provide me with a very simple trading method which compliments with FXTE's momentum trading system. I am not able to share with the simple method is from FNG. However, I will say this it is a fairly simple method, and if one is correct in the fundamental outlook - e.g. Bearish on USD or JPY, he can start using the simple method to profit from the market. Incidentally, I started with FNG's simple method this Monday (well, because I am not a FX newbie), and the trades I put just on Monday has already covered me 10 months' of FNG"s subscription. It's awesome.

What else am I doing?

Nothing much really. There won't be any workshops or coaching to do at AKLTG until July. Also, I am not going to OASIS at Santa Clara this year for personal reasons. So, it is a good time for me to rest my body because July will be a crazy month in view that Wealth Academy 18 and Patterns of Excellence Whoosh 28 (Mod 1) are coming.

Till then, take care.